Demographic Collapse: The Dilemma of Modernity – By Man of the North

Essentially all modern peoples of the First World are on a path to biological extinction, due to birth rate collapse. This simple and easily proven statistical fact is the greatest existential threat that we face, rendering other concerns nearly irrelevant. All cultural greatness rests upon the indispensable pre-condition of simple physical existence. The failure to reproduce renders all other achievements irrelevant.

This death spiral includes both the peoples of the West, as well as Asians and others who have substantially internalized the values and norms of modernity. In short, the phenomenon appears to function as a sort of social disease, which always appears in concert with seemingly positive achievements as reducing communicable diseases, reducing infant mortality, educating the populace, and achieving first world economic status.

The fundamental and primary dilemma of the West in our time lies in finding a path forward out of this seemingly inevitable doom. As will be explained, facile solutions bear their own costs, and the answers are not as clear as it would seem at first glance

A. The Demographic Situation

First and foremost, it must be understood that people of European descent are not reproducing at replacement rate anywhere in the world. A quick look at Wikipedia will reveal that (with exception of the Faeroe Islands) there is not a single Western nation with a fertility rate over 2.1 children per woman. Any fertility rate of less than 2.1 is defined as “sub-replacement” which means that a population with such rate will inevitably shrink with each generation, eventually reaching a point of no return.

Take Germany for an example. Germany has a total fertility rate of 1.38, and a current total population of 82 million. Around 651,000 children are born in Germany each year, as compared to 841,000 yearly deaths, giving a yearly shortfall of about 300,000 Germans. In other words, Germany loses the equivalent of a mid-sized city each and every year. In fact official German projections indicate that the total population will shrink to 65 million by 2060, even with a net migration of +100,000 per year. Obviously, 50 years of such population replacement will essentially extinguish the historic German nation.

In fact, the situation is generally more dire than suggested by official numbers, simply because the published “national” fertility rates actually include the higher fertility of recent immigrant women. For example, of the German population of 82 million, 66.7 million (81%) are Germans of no immigrant background. Obviously immigrants are currently 19%. However, 30% of all children born in Germany have immigrant background, showing disproportionate fertility by immigrants. While this fact tends to be obscured in official statistics, it is likely that actual European women have a true fertility rate close to 1, which leads to exponential population collapse.

Interestingly, the situation is the same or worse with respect to the modernized peoples outside of the north European cultural zone. In fact, the lowest birth rates on earth occur in modernized areas of Asia: South Korea (1.22), China (1.15), Singapore (1.10), Hong Kong (1.04), and Macau (.91). Extinction level rates are also prevalent among the presumably more “traditional” people of southern Europe: Italy (1.32), Greece (1.37). Spain (1.47) and Portugal (1.50). The former Soviet states likewise exhibit extreme birthrate depression: Ukraine (1.27), Poland (1.29), and so on. This underlines that the situation is not due to the particular cultural quirks of any one nation, rather it is a universal accompaniment to the facially positive attributes of modernization.

B. The Dilemma

There is no facile solution to this problem. It would seem that providing incentives to increase native birth rate or immigration is the obvious answer. However, increasing population by any means creates its own problems, in that the baby boom of today is the retiree generation of tomorrow, who will in turn require an even larger workforce to support them. The basic concept of social welfare is that the number of taxpayers must outnumber the retired dependents. To maintain current worker-retiree ratios, each generation must be larger than the last, ad infinitum. The system literally pre-supposes endless growth.

Even if natalist policies could work (which is doubtful), the goal of eternal growth is inconsistent with a world of physical limits; there are only so many acres of land to be filled before the quality of human life becomes intolerable. Transforming our lands into a densely populated and developed human hive would itself destroy the spirit of the West. In fact, most of our lands would be cleaner, freer, and more beautiful with far fewer people. It is widely agreed by persons of discernment that the maximum quality of human life is encountered specifically in regions of thin population, with a thrilling natural environment.

It must also be considered that “any pay to reproduce” scheme would inevitably act most strongly upon the worst elements of the native population. The reproduction of productive people is not really being held back by actual material want, so providing purely material incentives would only generate a large and larger underclass. Many of today’s problems are actually caused by the fact that there is no dignified and productive work to occupy the people that we do have; due to technological progress, much of our population is currently shunted into non-productive service jobs and demoralizing “make work.” Why create yet more people who will be doomed to live in apartment blocks and flip burgers?

It must also be conceded that the attractive aspects of modernity seem to inevitably coincide with a low birth rate. As a mater of reality, the only places with high birth rates are without exception caldrons of suffering, deprivation, and backwardness. (See Niger 7.68, Uganda 6.73, etc). It may well be that the level of social change required to restore Western birth-rates would halt the triumphs of modernity. After all, the small social groups that have indeed remained fecund in the West are not known for technical achievements. If everyone were Amish or the equivalent biologically healthy types, would we ever set foot on Mars?

C. A Possible Solution

Given that a much smaller population actually has much to recommend it, it would seem that the shrinkage process should perhaps be accepted. If borders were closed, equilibrium would eventually be reached, as the non-breeders simply died off, and their places were taken by the descendants of the fertile. Population would bottom out at perhaps 10% of the current level, and would presumably then begin to grow, since all the new population would bear cultural and biological traits of their fertile ancestors. This could lead to a new golden age, as the new growing population would have access to vast resources, space, and land per person. This approach would also provide an escape from the cycle of decadence and civilizational decline, as the new population would in fact have the mores and outlook of a young people, while presumably retaining much of the best creations of their forefathers.

It must also be understood that settlement of humans beyond the earth shall be immediately pursued with maximum vigor. Due to the energy involved in breaking earth’s gravity well, such colonization will never provide a significant release valve for excess population. Rather, by seeding a small population beyond the earth, this new branch of humanity will be freed forever from the dilemma expressed in this article, since the new population will be free to expand without limits, and without encountering the degradation attendant upon crowding the planet. While not solving Earth’s problems in any respect, this colonization effort will allow the creation of a new template for human progress.

D. Prospects for the Future

Despite the futility of never-ending growth, the option of accepting population decline behind closed borders seems inconceivable under our current political and economic systems. GDP would likely decline every year, causing what would be regarded as a permanent depression. At some point it would become literally impossible to keep sending out retirement checks; there would be no workers to tend the armies of elderly in their nursing homes and isolated apartments.

Within our current paradigm it is impossible to even discuss issues of national survival. The default position seems to be simply allowing in whatever number of immigrants is necessary to keep the national economies producing positive growth numbers. Our leaders are incapable of thinking in any terms other than the monetary; they will literally preside over the death of their peoples to avoid angering the gods of the economy.

I submit that any renaissance of the West will require a fundamental re-alignment of values, wherein the survival of the people becomes the fundamental and paramount consideration. We need leaders who will boldly face 100 years of declining GDP, if that is the cost of closing the borders. We need leaders who will charge the people with the home care of their old, rather than admitting hordes of servants. We need leaders who will call upon the people to form wholesome families, and will stand behind those who accept the challenge.

Author: Man of the North